Correlates of survival rates for 10 African ungulate populations: density, rainfall and predation - OWEN-SMITH - 2005 - Journal of Animal Ecology - Wiley Online Library: "Through reconciling census totals with population structure, annual survival rates were estimated for the juvenile, yearling and adult stages of 10 ungulate species over 14�years or longer in South Africa's Kruger National Park. During this period four species maintained high abundance levels, while six species declined progressively in abundance.
Multiple regression models fitted to these estimates indicated that juvenile survival was sensitive to annual variability in rainfall for most of these species, especially in the dry season component, but with no density feedback apparent. Rainfall components affected adult survival in several of the declining species, while negative density dependence in adult survival was evident for three of the four species that maintained high abundance. A negative effect of past prey availability, indexing putative changes in predator abundance, on adult survival was more strongly supported statistically among the declining species than the lagged effect of prior rainfall, potentially affecting herbaceous vegetation cover and composition."
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